Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
