🔗 Share this article From Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro. A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The mission was executed competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for this long.” Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”
A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The mission was executed competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for this long.” Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added. Tangible Costs and New Threats Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results. “Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”